1. What is the Race Predictor Formula?

The Race Predictor formula estimates your potential running time for a target distance based on your performance at a different distance. It uses a power-law relationship between distance and time that accounts for the fact that running speed decreases as distance increases.

2. How Does the Calculator Work?

The calculator uses the race prediction formula:

Where:

• \( current\_time \) — Your time for a known distance (minutes)
• \( current\_dist \) — The distance you've already run (km)
• \( target\_dist \) — The distance you want to predict time for (km)
• 1.06 — The exponent that accounts for decreased speed at longer distances

Explanation: The formula accounts for the non-linear relationship between running distance and time, with longer distances resulting in proportionally slower times.

3. Importance of Race Prediction

Details: Accurate race prediction helps runners set realistic goals, pace themselves properly during races, and track their training progress. It's particularly useful when preparing for a new distance.

4. Using the Calculator

Tips: Enter your best recent time for a known distance, the distance you ran, and the target distance you want to predict. All values must be positive numbers.

5. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: Why is the exponent 1.06?
A: Research has shown this exponent best represents how running times scale with distance for most runners, accounting for fatigue effects.

Q2: How accurate is this prediction?
A: It's reasonably accurate for distances between 5km and marathon, assuming similar training and conditions. Accuracy decreases for very short or ultra-long distances.

Q3: Should I use race times or training times?
A: For best results, use recent race times where you gave maximum effort. Training times may underestimate your race potential.

Q4: Does this account for terrain differences?
A: No, the formula assumes similar terrain conditions. Adjust predictions for significant elevation changes.

Q5: Can I predict shorter distances from longer ones?
A: Yes, but predictions tend to be less accurate when going from longer to shorter distances.